Stocks took a hit Tuesday as everyone watched the hours tick down to President Trump’s 8 p.m. deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. People were hoping for some last-minute miracle deal, but that hope faded fast and you could feel it in the markets.
The Dow dropped 355 points, S&P 500 lost 0.7%, and the Nasdaq slid 1%. Oil shot up at first with all the drama, but settled down by the close: WTI crude ended at $112.95, up 54 cents, while Brent slipped just a bit to $109.62.
Trump has been blunt. On Truth Social, he wrote, “A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don't want that to happen, but it probably will.” Then he added a glimmer of mystery, saying, “now that we have Complete and Total Regime Change… maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen, WHO KNOWS?” Honestly, I still can’t tell if I should be buying dips or heading for the exits.
Overnight, U.S. strikes reportedly hit Kharg Island. Iranian officials say talks still aren’t dead, so there’s a little hope. Axios mentioned some progress in the past day, but honestly, traders just aren’t betting on a breakthrough.
Energy stocks have been one of the few things working this year with oil rallying on the back of these headlines. I bought some Occidental last week after seeing crude break past $110, and so far it’s helped cushion the blow. Broadcom was a big mover too—up 5% after landing new AI chip deals with Google and Anthropic. But not everyone’s gung-ho; Joe Terranova from Virtus said maybe trim your energy stocks now, just in case a deal sparks a broad market jump.
Tech didn’t escape the chills. Apple sank nearly 4% after rumors of a big foldable iPhone delay (though Bloomberg later said a September launch is still likely). Arm Holdings dropped almost 6% after Morgan Stanley downgraded it, worried about the risks in its AI pivot. On the upside, Universal Music jumped 13% after Pershing Square made a $64 billion buyout offer. Honestly, that one surprised me.
As for the bigger economic signals: durable goods orders fell 1.4% in February—worse than people thought. New York Fed survey results showed only minor increases in longer-term inflation expectations. Goldman Sachs flagged record bearishness in credit markets; people are definitely getting nervous. UBS lowered its 2026 S&P 500 target to 7,500, warning that energy shocks could rattle things, but said not to swear off risky assets completely.
Looking abroad, things were mixed. Australia’s market jumped nearly 1.8%, Japan’s Nikkei barely moved, and South Korea’s Kospi went up about 0.8%. Global markets are just waiting, it feels like everyone’s eyes are glued to the Strait of Hormuz and Trump’s looming deadline.
Honestly, nobody knows what the next few hours will bring. One headline and everything could change. That’s the mood right now—just waiting for the next shoe to drop.
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